Western Illinois

Conference:	Sum
Expected RPI:	302.0
Current RPI:	302
Expected SOS:	269
Current SOS:	269
Current Record:	8-16
Expected Record:	8-16
Current Conf Record:	3-12
Expected Conf Record:	3-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-8
Current OOC Record:	5-4
Expected OOC Record:	5-4
Expected OOC RPI:	256
Expected OOC SOS:	338

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-16	302.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-15	Eastern Illinois (262.0)	OVC	H	56-54	W	100%
11-22	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	A	67-69	W	100%
11-25	Iowa St. (144.0)	B12	A	70-45	L	0%
11-28	IUPUI (294.0)	Horz	H	90-77	W	100%
12-2	Miami OH (159.0)	MAC	H	73-76	L	0%
12-6	American (336.0)	Pat	H	69-56	W	100%
12-9	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	H	90-69	W	100%
12-19	Eastern Illinois (262.0)	OVC	A	78-77	L	0%
12-21	Butler (41.0)	BE	A	107-46	L	0%
1-3	South Dakota (91.0)	Sum	A	62-50	L	0%
1-6	Oral Roberts (255.0)	Sum	A	81-66	L	0%
1-11	Nebraska Omaha (284.0)	Sum	H	66-87	L	0%
1-17	Fort Wayne (209.0)	Sum	H	75-74	W	100%
1-20	South Dakota St. (37.0)	Sum	H	70-98	L	0%
1-25	Denver (224.0)	Sum	A	70-58	L	0%
1-27	North Dakota St. (210.0)	Sum	A	80-69	L	0%
2-1	South Dakota (91.0)	Sum	H	54-80	L	0%
2-3	Oral Roberts (255.0)	Sum	H	82-56	W	100%
2-8	Nebraska Omaha (284.0)	Sum	A	71-68	L	0%
2-14	Fort Wayne (209.0)	Sum	A	90-74	L	0%
2-17	South Dakota St. (37.0)	Sum	A	82-62	L	0%
2-22	North Dakota St. (210.0)	Sum	H	82-74	W	100%
2-24	Denver (224.0)	Sum	H	52-89	L	0%
3-3	South Dakota St. (37.0)	Sum	N	66-60	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Western Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Western Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Western Illinois	Sum	26.57	26.57	28.57	28.57	-11.39	-11.39
South Dakota St.	Sum	7.26	7.26	77.78	77.78	4.04	4.04
South Dakota	Sum	5.36	5.36	71.43	71.43	2.30	2.30
North Dakota St.	Sum	5.28	5.28	40.74	40.74	-0.98	-0.98
Denver	Sum	5.24	5.24	42.31	42.31	-0.81	-0.81
Fort Wayne	Sum	5.24	5.24	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	5.17	5.17	18.52	18.52	-3.26	-3.26
Oral Roberts	Sum	5.17	5.17	26.92	26.92	-2.39	-2.39
Eastern Illinois	OVC	4.27	4.27	33.33	33.33	-1.42	-1.42
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	2.34	2.34	31.03	31.03	-0.89	-0.89
IUPUI	Horz	2.26	2.26	33.33	33.33	-0.75	-0.75
Milwaukee	Horz	2.19	2.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	2.16	2.16	43.33	43.33	-0.29	-0.29
Iowa St.	B12	2.12	2.12	40.00	40.00	-0.42	-0.42
American	Pat	2.08	2.08	20.69	20.69	-1.22	-1.22
Butler	BE	2.08	2.08	59.38	59.38	0.39	0.39
Oakland	Horz	0.33	0.33	57.58	57.58	0.05	0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.32	0.32	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.32	0.32	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.32	0.32	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.28	0.28	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.25	0.25	36.67	36.67	-0.07	-0.07
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.25	0.25	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.25	0.25	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
Belmont	OVC	0.25	0.25	72.73	72.73	0.11	0.11
Kansas	B12	0.24	0.24	79.41	79.41	0.14	0.14
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.24	0.24	20.00	20.00	-0.15	-0.15
Detroit	Horz	0.22	0.22	20.00	20.00	-0.13	-0.13
Green Bay	Horz	0.21	0.21	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
Murray St.	OVC	0.21	0.21	82.76	82.76	0.14	0.14
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.21	0.21	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.21	0.21	27.59	27.59	-0.10	-0.10
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.21	0.21	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.21	0.21	71.88	71.88	0.09	0.09
TCU	B12	0.21	0.21	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Stetson	ASun	0.18	0.18	28.57	28.57	-0.08	-0.08
Colorado	P12	0.18	0.18	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.18	0.18	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.18	0.18	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.18	0.18	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Morehead St.	OVC	0.18	0.18	22.22	22.22	-0.10	-0.10
UMKC	WAC	0.17	0.17	27.59	27.59	-0.08	-0.08
Buffalo	MAC	0.17	0.17	75.76	75.76	0.09	0.09
Marquette	BE	0.17	0.17	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.15	0.15	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Navy	Pat	0.14	0.14	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.14	0.14	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
San Jose St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	10.34	10.34	-0.11	-0.11
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.14	0.14	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
Akron	MAC	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.14	0.14	32.35	32.35	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.14	0.14	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.14	0.14	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.14	0.14	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.14	0.14	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.13	0.13	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Tulsa	Amer	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Lafayette	Pat	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Wichita St.	Amer	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	82.35	82.35	0.07	0.07
West Virginia	B12	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Creighton	BE	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.09	0.09	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
Air Force	MWC	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	6.67	6.67	-0.06	-0.06
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Indiana	B10	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Montana	BSky	0.07	0.07	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.07	0.07	16.13	16.13	-0.05	-0.05
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.07	0.07	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
Arizona	P12	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.07	0.07	24.24	24.24	-0.04	-0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
USC	P12	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
UTEP	CUSA	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.07	0.07	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.07	0.07	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	Pat	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.07	0.07	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.07	0.07	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Baylor	B12	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	BE	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.04	0.04	88.24	88.24	0.03	0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.04	0.04	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
VMI	SC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01